From Holden:

Nearly every poll agrees that all progress belongs to Kerry, but it’s still a dead heat:

ABC News/Washington Post Poll

Likely Voters

Bush 51 (unchanged)

Kerry 46 (+1)

Registered Voters

Bush 50 (-1)

Kerry 45 (+1)

CBS News/New York Times Poll

Registered Voters

Bush 48 (-1)

Kerry 47 (+6)

Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey

Likely Voters

Bush 49 (+2)

Kerry 44 (-2)

Registered Voters

Bush 48 (unchanged)

Kerry 41 (+1)

Zogby America Poll

Likely Voters

Bush 46 (-1)

Kerry 45 (+1)