From Holden:
I was just looking at Electoral-Vote.com’s Electoral College predictor, and I like what I see.
They’re listing ten states as barley supporting one candidate or the other, a total of 126 electoral votes. Six of those states were credited to Bush in 2000, four were won by Al Gore. The six states credited to Bush in 2000 that are now at risk add up to 86 electoral votes, while the former Gore states equal 36 votes.
Kerry has a much larger margin for error than Bush does. Here’s a state-by-state breakdown of the “barely” states.
Gore States
Maine
Barely Kerry
4 electoral votes
Gore won in 2000
Wisonsin
Barely Kerry
10 electoral votes
Gore won in 2000
Iowa
Barely Kerry
7 electoral votes
Gore won in 2000
New Jersey
Barely Kerry
15 electoral votes
Gore won in 2000
Bush States
Florida
Barely Kerry
27 electoral votes
Gore won in 2000, Supremes gave it to Bush anyway
Tennessee
Barely Bush
11 electoral votes
Bush won in 2000
Ohio
Barely Bush
20 electoral votes
Bush won in 2000
Virginia
Barely Bush
13 electoral votes
Bush won in 2000
West Virginia
Barely Bush
5 electoral votes
Bush won in 2000
North Carolina
Barely Bush
15 electoral votes
Bush won in 2000