From Holden:

Eleven of Ohio’s eighty-eight counties have examined their provisional ballots. They’ve been able to validate 81% of those ballots. If that percentage of good ballots holds true statewide we could see 125,822 of the 155,337 provisional ballots cast validated. Even if every provisional ballot was credited to Kerry he needs just over 136,000 votes to take Ohio away from the Chimp.

Of course there will also be a recount in Ohio, and Ohio has established laws governing how undervotes are to be examined. So who knows, but chances of a stunning turnaround are exceedingly slim.