Bush Boom Sighting at the NY Times – Nope, Must Have Been a Weather Balloon

From Holden:

Today’s New York Times coverage of the weekly new jobless numbers had me thinking that my Bush Boom was just around the corner.

The number of people filing new applications last week for unemployment benefits dipped last week, offering a hopeful sign for recovery in the nation’s labor market.

The Labor Department reported Thursday that new claims for unemployment insurance dropped by a seasonally adjusted 3,000 to 334,000 for the week ending Nov. 13. That was the lowest level since the end of October.

Wow! Today’s new jobless numbers realized the “lowest level since the end of October”! But wait a minute, there’s only been one other new jobless figure released since the end of October. What the Times is really telling us is today’s number is better than the one for last week (originally reported at 333,000 revised this week to 337,000), but not as good as the last report for October (which was originally 332,000, later revised downward to 331,000). And this week’s number was in fact higher than the number originally reported for last week (332,000) and can only been seen as an improvement because last week’s number was revised upwards by a whopping 4,000 new Lucky Duckies.

Let’s look at the September and October numbers to see how today’s figure of 334,000 stacks up.

Week ending Sep. 25 – 369,000 (later revised to 372,000).

Week ending Oct. 2 – 335,000 (later revised to 337,000).

Week ending Oct. 9 – 352,000 (later revised to 354,000).

Week ending Oct. 16 – 329,000 (later revised to 330,000).

Week ending Oct. 23 – 350,000 (later revised to 351,000).

Week ending Oct. 30 – 332,000 (later revised to 321,000).

This week’s number (334,000) is the third-best number since the beginning of September. At least it is this week. Six of the last seven new jobless numbers released by the ETA have been revised upwards one week later by an average of just over 1,800 Lucky Duckies, who knows what this week’s number will look like next week.

So do this week’s new jobless numbers offer “a hopeful sign for recovery in the nation’s labor market” as the Times’ claims?

Nope, looks like more of the same, no Bush Boom for me.