Another Dead-Cat Bounce

From Holden:

Chimpy’s job approval rating rises within the margin of error in the latest Gallup poll to 36%, up from 33% in mid-May. And it’s all due to pony-hating Republicans as Democrats and Independents haven’t budged in their assesment of the worst president ever.

The June 1-4 poll shows about a 10 percentage-point increase in Bush’s approval rating among Republicans, from 69% in the two May polls to 78% in the current poll. Independents’ (25% in May, 28% currently) and Democrats’ (8% at both times) ratings of Bush have held steady, so the modest improvement in recent weeks is mostly due to more positive evaluations from Bush’s own partisans.

However, from the historical perspective he’s on life support.

Even with the slight improvement, Bush’s ratings remain among the worst of his presidency. He has not been at 40% approval since February, and has not been at 50% approval in over a year (May 2005). He has not been above the 50% mark since March 2005.

After a stellar 62% average approval rating during his first four-year term in office, Bush has averaged just 43% since his second inauguration in January 2005.

By historical standards, Bush’s current 36% rating is not the worst of presidents at similar points in their second terms. Nixon’s 28% — measured two months before he resigned office — holds that distinction. Truman’s 37% rating is the closest to Bush’s. The other second-term presidents were near 50% or above it.

Of historical note is that the parties of Truman, Nixon, and Johnson all suffered heavy losses in the midterm elections held in those years. One difference between these historical points in time and now is that two years earlier each president won a landslide re-election victory or the president’s party made large gains in congressional seats in that election. Neither applied to Bush in 2004, who won by a slim margin over John Kerry while Republicans picked up a modest 11 House seats, aided in part by redistricting in Texas.

The Chimpster is currently stuck at all-time low approval ratings in ten national polls, from ABC to Zogby, listed in the extended text (click Read More).

From Holden:

ABC News/Washington Post: 33%

American Research Group (ARG): 34%

American Research Group (ARG): 32%

AP/Ipsos: 33%

CBS News: 33%

No longer an all-time low. CBS News: 35%

CNN: 32%

UPDATE: Chimpy leaps up to 34% in the latest CNN poll.

Diageo/Hotline: 37%

Fox News: 33%

Chimpy surges in the latest Fox News poll to 38%, so that Pony Blow appointment must be paying off already.

So much for that bounce, Chimpy is back down to 35% accoridng to Fox.

Harris Interactive: 29%

NBC/Wall Street Journal: 36%

Newsweek: 35%

Quinnipiac: 35%

USA Today/Gallup: 34%

USA Today/Gallup: 31%

Zogby: 32%