In January, Walker’s job approval was 51 percent; in March, it was 50 percent; and this month, it’s 47 percent.
In January, Walker was leading Barrett 50-44; in March, 47-45; and this month, he trails 46-47. (Among likely voters, Walker leads by a point; all of these findings suggest a mostly unchanging dead heat.)
“There’s been a great deal of advertising in the state, especially from the Walker campaign and Republican supporters, and we’ve seen virtually no movement in the Walker numbers,” Franklin tells me.
What’s particularly interesting here is that just yesterday, Walkerannounced he’d raised a staggering $13 million in three months for the recall fight. But even though he’s likely to outspend his Dem opponent in the home stretch, it’s unclear how much that will matter, because the numbers suggest ads are unlikely to move the needle much going forward.
It’s not like he’s some unknown quantity, either. I’m sure there are people in the state of Wisconsin who just haven’t heard enough about Walker to make up their minds if he or whatever organism the Dems nominate would do a better job, but the club of the most of them have spent the past year-plus hearing Walker nonstop, pro and con. Short of his fishing bin Laden out of the sea and killing him again, it’s difficult to see what Walker could do that would influence his approval ratings in any way.
That doesn’t mean recall’s a lock, though. This stuff’s hard for a reason:
“It won’t take much in voter turnout to tip the race either way,” Franklin says. “You can spend an awful lot of money on advertising and it would be unlikely to change many minds. But the advantages that Democrats and unions have traditionally had in the ground game is certainly an area where they can match Walker’s organization at the very least.”
A.
5 thoughts on “Everybody Still Hates Scott”
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When California recalled Gray Davis in 2003, turnout for the recall election was about 20% higher than it had been in Nov 2002, when Davis was had been re-elected Gov. Now maybe some of that was the presence of Schwarzenegger and ‘star power’ energizing people.
But if an ‘extra’ 300K or 400K voters show up for the WI recall, I think Barrett wins a *very* close election; if not, Walker wins by a percent or two.
Walker’s ground game is evident in my Very Red part of the state, Walker yard signs are popping up like dandelions far outnumbering the number of Recall support signs, though once past the primary when there is a defined opponent that may change. I’m sure their stragegy is to give the impression of overwhelming popular support for Scotty, the zealots with their yards covered in Walker signs would like you to believe it. I think lefties tend to be less obvious in general though so you’ll not see the over-the-top displays like I’ve seen in some wingnut yards.
I’ll support whomever wins the primary, but if Barrett wins I’ll regret not having the opportunity to put up a “Falk Walker” sign.
Not sure how it could be quantified, perhaps if a pollster asked, but no telling how GOP crossover votes in the Dem primary will factor.
Falk cannot beat Walker and thus the GOP would love for her to be the candidate. Barrett should win unless the crossover vote is high. My point, even high Dem turnout might not decide this race.
“It won’t take much in turnout to tip the race either way,”
Dare I suggest the obvious: that is the reason there was so much political wrangling to get the election to be at a time when the students are gone and when people don’t care a lot about an election in the summer?
Maplestreet: No, please state the obvious because the significance of timing of the primary and recall election dates has been understated. The fake democratic challenges was predfabrication just to require primaries which would push the recall election into summer. Not just for dismissing the student vote but also to extend the time limit for out of state donation whoring. Walker’s donation money may not be for the May & June elections. In fact, some of it has already been moved to Walker’s Legal Defense fund. It’s becoming a slush fund to hush Walker & cohorts under investigation. (Although he calls it euphemistically his Legal Cooperation Fund!) There is so much money in the vaults of Koch & corporations that they can defy commonsense. Meanwhile those same corporations are holding back employment numbers and business expansion that would actually contribute to the welfare of the nation.