On Wisconsin

49’r state

A new poll shows the state’s in a dead heat at 49% per. FromGreg Sargent at The Plum Line:

A new poll taken by pollster Celinda Lake — who is a Democrat but is well respected by polling professionals — has found that the battle between Scott Walker and challenger Tom Barrett is now deadlocked, at 49 percent each.

The poll — which will be released later today and was comissioned by the pro-labor Greater Wisconsin Committee’s political fund — also finds that independents are breaking towards Barrett, 49-44.

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7 thoughts on “49’r state”

  1. i got polled by PPP yesterday. it was the best poll i have ever done, THO, i love fucking w/ publikkklan push pollers. OMG, one, where i could coment, the pollster wanted to take notes cause i was informed.

  2. And I saw two other polls showing Walker with a sizable lead.
    I simply don’t understand how he isn’t completely blown away by Barrett. I mean, I don’t live there so I don’t understand the local psychology at play here but I’d think being DEAD LAST in job creation would speak for itself. But what do I know.

  3. SB, Walker and his allies are very, very, very good at redirecting resentment. You don’t have a job? Your factory shut down? Your kid’s school is falling apart?
    Guess what, it’s because all those union teachers make too much money. Why do THEY have protections I didn’t? Why aren’t THEY out of work, too?
    It’s always easier to be mad at your neighbors than it is to think of yourself as having been taken for a ride.
    A.

  4. The Obama campaign in Chicago are busing people up to Kenosha/Racine if anybody is interested in doing GOTV.
    Details – goo.gl/puZro

  5. Basically, it’s a tie. The latest Marquette poll does have Walker ahead, but they did almost all their conversations before the debate last Friday, in which Barrett did well (and the media actually reported that he did well) and seems to have been able to shift the momentum a bit. The John Doe issue is really gaining traction, and hunters seem to be catching on that Walker may want to privatize that, which is a huge deal (now you pay $25 for a tag; Walker’s “Deer Czar” is a Texan who thinks hunting on public lands is socialism and that people should pay hundreds of dollars to hunt). Barrett has some good ads up on TV and radio (and not just on lefty stations — I’ve heard them on the classic rock station), and Walker’s pulling out the sleaze in his. Early voting is looking really good in Democratic strongholds; there’s a fair amount of early voting in Republican areas too, but apparently not at the same level as in 2010.
    Also, the Marquette poll and a lot of the other polls lean conservative in their demographics — they talk to a lot more people who identify as conservative than is represented in the population as a whole. In addition, their models assume that turnout will be like 2010, which is insane. Finally, Walker’s side hasn’t released or even hinted at what their internal polling shows, which suggests that they don’t like what they see.
    I’m not saying Walker’s toast, but I am saying that this looks like it’s going to be really, really close. And yeah, what Athenae said about divide and conquer. I sometimes wonder what it would take to get through to some of these people.

  6. The ‘cross-tabs’ from the Marquette Poll had 16% of Democrats saying they were going to vote for Walker, up from 8% in the previous poll.
    As Sue said, only one day of their polling happened after last Friday’s debate; so what happened in that two weeks that would cause 8% to shift from Barrett to Walker?
    And while you’re contemplating that one, let me add that 7% of Dems shifted from Mahlon Mitchell to Kleefisch in the Lt Gov race.
    Yeah, right. That happened.

  7. The Marquette polling is not trustworthy. It’s ultimately funded by the right and linked inextricably to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, by no means a liberal paper, which is the major mouthpiece for reporting the poll results.
    Moreover, it’s subject to range of +/-4.1% which means even that “blowout” poll is a statistical dead heat.
    The point in pushing this kind of poll—twofold, first to discourage voters from turning out and second to make it close enough to fudge the results. (I’m looking at you, Waukesha County Clerk.)
    I fully expect this to be a close race, one that could end up in a recount at which time Walker will challenge the Madison and Milwaukee votes,student voters especially. After all, the point of challenging the recall petitions was to get the recall election moved into June, after the thousands of students who live in the dorms in Madison and Milwaukee disperse. And then those challenges could ultimately end up in the state supreme court, controlled by Prosser and his posse.
    Unless there is a blowout next Tuesday…

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