The Colossus Of Toads

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So, after yesterday’s performance, does anyone really doubt the conclusions of Rachel Bitecofer? Her analysis of the 2018 midterms, in which she predicted a strong showing by Democrats, included the following

Although Trumpism has been an effective rallying cry for the GOP base, it has galvanized a previously complacent part of the electorate; white, college educated millennial women as well as all voters under age 40, who represent a far more diverse and liberal voter universe than their older counterparts

2018 is a story of turnout and turnout was powered by one thing, and one thing only: Donald J. Trump. Contrary to conventional wisdom, Democrats did not flip these Republican districts via the support of moderate Republicans due to their focus on health care. Instead, I’ll show in a forthcoming analysis of the voter file that Democrats’ sharp reversal in their abysmal midterm electoral fortunes was powered by large turnout surges of partisan Democrats and Independents. This turnout surge had profound impacts on the demographic and partisan compositions of the electorates in the competitive districts, leading 40 of them to flip on Election Day.

For better or for worse, American elections are low turnout affairs and it is increasingly clear that in the polarized era, as voters have become more entrenched in their respective parties, elections are increasingly decided by which party (and their Independent leaners) has a turnout-boosting enthusiasm advantage. Analyzed this way, contests are assessed by their turnout surge (or decline) potential. Using this metric, despite Democrats’ impressive 2018 performance, they left a half dozen seats uncontested in the 2018 cycle that may well have flipped if they had been identified as competitive by the Democrat’s campaign apparatus.

In other words, you can forget about swaying Reagan Democrats, because they no longer exist. They’re extinct. And Trump voters are Trump voters. Yesterday’s clown show accusing Jewish Democrats of disloyalty while claiming to be the chosen on (by whom and for what?) won’t change their minds. Nothing will. They are, to use some else’s term, a basket of deplorables, and that’s putting it nicely.

Shitheels might be putting it nicely.

The election will be all about who can get their voters to vote. We know what Trump is. Who are we?

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