The hot takes are flying about the Israeli election. I’m a Bibi-phobe in good standing but here’s a reminder that what we’ve seen thus far is an exit poll showing the opposition with a narrow lead. Israel has proportional representation and a multi-party system, which means a coalition must be built. Netanyahu is down but not out. He trailed Shimon Peres in the 1996 exit polls and won that election.
But there is an ocean of tears of Bibi-haters who put their faith in Israeli exit polls. We have seen repeated examples of narrow Likud defeats which overnight turned into narrow victories. This is definitely looking like a tough situation for Netanyahu. But I’ve been Charlie Brown and seen this football teed up far too many times to put much stock in these numbers…
Ever since exit polls showed John Kerry winning the 2004 presidential election, I haven’t put much stock in them. Hopefully, this one is right, but now is not the time to spike the ball. Just ask Charlie Brown:
INSTANT UPDATE: The votes are in and the opposition Blue and White has 32 seats and Bibi’s Likud 31. That will give Benny Gantz the first crack at forming a government BUT bad shit could still happen. What I said about spiking the ball still applies.