Some things to keep in mind as we are getting some winter weather in the U.S. (finally).
Your memory is not reliable, and it is especially not reliable on weather events to the point where weather risk communications experts view it as a challenge. Look up confirmation bias, and I will quote a long-standing forecasting rule that many meteorologists know all too well: One bad forecast will erase 20 good ones in the public mind. So, don’t go on memory as a guide on how to react to a storm (all of them are different, after all).
Believing myths can get you into trouble. I have two former co-workers who openly scoffed at the idea of a major blizzard in January 2016, because “forecasts are never right so we are going to ignore them.” Being part of this was the result.
Climate change and snow are complicated. Climate change means LESS snow on average, but does not mean NO snow if you are in an area that gets snow. In fact, if you are on the East Coast, it means you are more likely to get big blockbuster snowstorms than in the past. New York City, for example, has had seven of the top 10 biggest snowstorms hit in the last 30 years. If your response is “how can that be” please note meteorologist and former president of the American Meteorology Society Marshall Shepherd’s Tweet from several years ago (this guides my science writing, I keep all four points in mind while trying to translate science for the general public):
My experience talking to public about science and as professor at UGA has taught me a few things: People struggle w/1. Probability 2. Concepts with multiple processes 3. Non-linear processes 4. Things that don't align with simplistic models of how they understand it. https://t.co/VUG0UUtsjE
— Dr. Marshall Shepherd (@DrShepherd2013) February 8, 2021
Meteorologists are not telling you to panic. In all cases, they are only asking you to take precautionary steps, like staying home and chilling out with a book or Netflix or a cat or a dog or whatever. If you can, of course. In the case of ice storms, this might include making sure you have a plan on what to do if you don’t have power for several days, or have lanterns or flashlights. It sure beats trying to figure out what to do in the dark when the lights go out.
The news media does, however, seem to tell you to panic. Pre-storm anxiety is a real thing, something a growing number of meteorologists are keeping in mind. Breathless news reports about “bracing for a winter onslaught” over 2-4″ of snow is not exactly helping.
Focus on impacts, not amounts. While a foot of snow is more intimidating, 80% of all accidents in snow events happen with 2″ of snow or less. This is likely due to the thinking that heavy snow is more dangerous, but an inch of packed snow is very slippery. Truly is a public safety communication challenge.
Try not to go on what you want to happen. What you want to happen – whether it’s a lot of snow because you love snow, a forecast bust because of a belief in a sacred myth that forecasts are never right, or no snow because you hate winter – generally is not a factor. So, when thinking about what to do with a forecast, try to block that out of your mind.
Two final things: Busts really do happen. Often, within a single snowstorm, a forecast will do well for 90% of the areas affected but bust elsewhere, either too low or too high. When you think of areal coverage, this is understandable. And occasionally, there are huge forecast whiffs, like this one.
But also, snow really does affect things. This current winter weather outbreak has certainly done its damage. Around 40 people have died so far, although it seems that lately, other people’s deaths mean little to America in general.
But that’s no reason to panic if it is snowing. Just, relax, hang out at home if you can, and get around to reading that book or watching that show you’ve been wanting to check out.