As our friends in New Orleans face theexcruciating wait to see where Gustav will go, there is much talk of the possible political effects of Gustav hitting the Gulf Coast during the GOP Convention.Politico writes that it could “swamp” the GOP andthe NYT’s editorial board writes of possible “karmic payback” for the Republicans. Just as, much caution is advised in forecasting what Gustav will do, I would advise the same caution in predicting the possible political outcome. Because there is another political scenario far different from payback. It could be payoff.
One of the important lessons of Katrina was… don’t count on the feds. And the feds have been pointed and clear–you’re on your own for the first 72 hours. As a result the state of Louisiana and So. La. parishes know they are responsible for taking the lead for evacuations and have worked on their evacuation plans the past years. FEMA has a support role but the onus is onlocals:
These plans focus on two
things. First, it is
the responsibility of
each citizen to develop
their own individual and
family plans to evacuate
away from potential
hurricane damage and
sustain themselves for 3
days. Second, disaster
response starts at the
local level. The cities
and parishes along the
coast are the driving
force behind determining
what assets they have
and what assets they
need from the state to
protect their citizens.
Of course they must implement those plans andproblems will occur but I think given numerous changes we could see a rate of evacuation even better than the remarkable 90% for metro N.O. prior to Hurricane Katrina. If those plans go well (and I hope that is the case if it comes to that) it’s less likely that we would see the repeat of the terrible scenes (people awating rescue, food, water on rooftops,Interstate overpasses or shelters of last resort) as during Katrina.
If that occurs I predict we will see the mighty Wurlitzer spin faster than a Cat 5 hurricane. Bush, McCain and the GOP will work to spin this as their Redemptive Moment. They will claim credit for improvements as hard as they spun the blame last time on Democratic officials at the state and local levels. The credit would more rightly belong to the State, Parishes and citizens but that won’t be the story except in the case of the inevitable touting of a Republican Governor–Bobby Jindal. It will be said they delivered on the promise ofNever Again. “Karmic Payback” could turn to GOP Payoff.
My point is…forget the politics. There is not an upside or downside, to Payback or Payoff, worth the pain and misery that could be wrought upon our fellow Americans.
We need to remember what happened and hope and pray andact so it never happens again…(h/t for video to Toulouse St)
(Caveat: If the levees fail then it’s a different story. Hopefully that wouldn’t be ignored as it has these past 3 years.)