I’ve done a lot of hand-holding here and on social media, so I decided to do this early in 2016. Anybody freaking out should read Athenae’s Sunday post again.
I’d like to thank the good people at 270towin.com for making this exercise much easier this year. They even have a map that contemplates an independent candidate carrying a state so I have availed myself of it since I predict an upset in the Beehive State.
First, my Electoral College map followed by some explanations.
That’s right, I think Evan McMullin will win the state of Utah by a narrow margin. LDS disgust with Trump is genuine for reasons that I will restate: his anti-immigrant views and threats against a religious minority. Today it’s the Muslims, tomorrow it could be the Mormons. We know who B3 want to move against. You can see it in their closing teevee commercial; more on that later.
LDS disgust with Trump is another reason I think HRC will pull an upset and take Arizona. When the vote totals come in, I expect John McCain to run ahead of Trump; some of those votes will be Hispanics but others will be Mormons. There’s a substantial LDS population in Arizona and they don’t like Trump. They might not vote for HRC but many of them will never vote for the Insult Comedian. I’m going with my gut on this one even if it makes me a sinner in the church of the Nerd Oracle.
Arizona is my long shot pick. I won’t be surprised if Trump squeaks out a win there but it will be a more important swing state than Iowa in 2020. Why? The Hispanic vote, which is why I think we will win in Florida, Nevada, and North Carolina.
Ohio is the other state I’m not solid about BUT Team Clinton is pouring so much effort and money in there that I think she’ll color the Buckeye state blue. The star power of Jay-Z, Beyonce, and Lebron should help. It couldn’t hurt.
Iowa is lost but it has been replaced by Nevada, which will be solidly Democratic in future Presidential years. I think there will be some new battlegrounds in 2020: in addition to Arizona, Texas and Georgia will be hotly contested. I had dreams they might fall this year but they won’t. They’ll be in play along with Ohio and Florida the next time around.
I’ll have more about the Hispanic/Latino wave of 2016 later today.
I haven’t followed these as closely but here are my somewhat fearful Senate picks:
I think Missouri or Indiana could go the other way but Jason Kander is such a good candidate that I think he’ll win in Missouri. I’m pulling for him but I’m meh on past malaka of the week, Evan Bayh who’s trying to reclaim his old seat.
I think Rubio survives in Florida because of ticket-splitting Hispanics. But Joe Heck loses in Nevada because of the Hispanic Wave voting for one of their own, Catherine Cortez Masto, and because of Harry Reid’s phenomenal organization. I will always be wild about Harry. And to Heck with Joe.
I’m not sure how the Gret Stet of Louisiana will break down but there *will* be a December run-off and we will elect a Republican Senator to the Hooker Seat. There’s a small chance that the 2 Democrats could both make the run-off but either will lose to the Republicans if it’s a D-R primary. David Duke will finish sixth or lower and return to obscurity.
I am not nutty enough to forecast House races but my gut instinct is that the Democrats will gain seats but Paul Ryan will remain Speaker. Unless, that is, his caucus mounts another coup. House GOPers love them some coup plotting.
I may get some of the details wrong but I am confident about three things:
- The President of the Senate in 2016 will be Tim Kaine.
- We will elect our first woman President, Hillary Rodham Clinton,
- Donald Trump will not be the first Insult Comedian elected President.
Believe me.