There was a significant electoral development in 2022 after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade:  a noticeable rise in Democratic registrations. After voters defeated an attempt to ban abortion, analysis of the electorate showed that a bipartisan coalition came together to save a woman’s right over her own body. Abortion is on the ballot for the foreseeable future.

Since the Dobbs decision, Democrats have routinely over-performed in many—although not all—elections. Tuesday brought more evidence that that is still the trend. There was a special election in Florida, where in 2022 its lift-wearing governor Ron DeSantis was re-elected. The district had gone for Biden by 5% in 2020, but in 2020 the Republican candidate won by almost 11%.

The Republican candidate, Erika Booth, ran on the issues that are now the core values of the GOP:  transphobia, gun mania, scaring people about immigrants, etc. You know the song by heart. She also supported Florida’s abortion ban, which has no exceptions for rape or incest. Her opponent Tom Keen, among other things, opposed the state’s interference in education issues, supported affordable housing, and protecting access to women’s healthcare.

Here’s another piece of data to add to the mix:

A look at registration rolls shows the race as a true battleground, more so after both parties placed a priority on voter registration and vote-by-mail requests. As of the Dec. 18 registration deadline to vote in this race, the 37,389 registered Democrats barely outnumber 37,155 registered Republicans. Voters with no party affiliation outnumber both groups, with 37,786 registered, though turnout is traditionally low among independents in unusually timed races, and this election appears to be no exception.

Keen won the election by 2.6%, adding to the Democrats’ over-performing streak. I’ll take every victory as we creep toward Election Day. Split Enz can take it from here: