Elections, Jamie O, Political Crack, So Called Liberal Media

Likely Voter Polls Look Better For Biden

Simon Rosenberg runs a blog called Hopium Chronicles. Rosenberg is a Democratic strategist who offers up near-daily shots of optimism for us Democrats.

Rosenberg may be a little too sunny as far as the election goes, and he does seem to get really pissed at people who raise concerns in the comment section, even if on occasion those people are not just freaking out but have legitimate points. But he has a pretty good track record. He was one of the few in the media telling people to settle down about the no-doubt-about-it Red Wave that was supposed to sweep away Democrats in 2022 midterms. He doubted it would happen.

As we all know, it indeed did not happen and Rosenberg was right. He also called the Florida state house win for Dems in a special election last January that most thought was an easy win for Republicans.

That leads me to a recent Rosenberg post that supported something I thought I had noticed but wasn’t sure if I was crazy Back in February, I saw this Tweet by New Republic writer Greg Sargent:

I had noticed this in some polls – that polls of likely voters were sometimes better for Biden than polls of registered voters or all adults. But I wasn’t sure if it was my imagination. Then, last weekend Rosenberg posted on Hopium about the ABC News poll and included this graphic:

Note how much better Biden does with likely voters compared to all adults or registered voters. Rosenberg then pointed out that in the most recent NPR Marist poll, Biden led 50-48 among registered voters, a virtual tie. However, among those who say they will definitely vote in November, that increases to 52-47 Biden, a pretty solid lead.

This is encouraging. While a lot can and will happen in the next six months, it beats the opposite being true.

The other thing that stands out to me is despite a general opinion among political types that likely voter polls are a better assessment of the current status of the election if there are registered voter and likely voter versions of the same poll, often the registered will get reported in the media and not the likely. Why this is, who knows. But given how Biden is often covered by the Very Serious and Reasoned Minds of the Great American Political Discourse, I have my suspicions. After all, the Paper of Record’s publisher admitted that they are fussy at Biden about his refusal to grant them an interview.

Nevertheless, next time you see a poll mentioned in the news, click on the link to the actual poll and dig around to see if there is a likely voter version. You probably will get a better snapshot of the current state of the election, even if some in the media seem like they don’t want you to know about it.

The last word goes to Native singer-songwriter Tia Wood, with a song about Natives riding horses to get to far-off polling places to vote, which was key to Democrats winning in 2020 in Arizona.