I know that some of you out there in the public believe that meteorologists come up with terms like “polar vortex” and “heat index” because they are big meanies who want to make you feel bad about the weather, but this is not true.

I will say that by now, people know that El Niño is a thing, and might even know what it is. Often the media would portray it as some kind of storm. But in reality, it’s more like this.

El Niño is a natural climate pattern where parts of the Pacific Ocean become warmer than usual, and that extra warmth shifts weather patterns around the world. In simple terms, it’s like a large area of ocean heating up and influencing the atmosphere, which can change where rain and storms happen, bringing wetter weather to some regions, drier conditions to others, and often warmer global temperatures overall.

I hate to add to our list of worries, but we have an El Niño on the way, probably formed in full by autumn or even by summer. But not just an average, run-of-the-mill El Niño, but a potential “super El Niño” brewing in 2026. This could have some pretty big consequences for the global climate, and yes, before anyone rolls their eyes, this is one of those “natural cycles” that still manages to make everything we’re already dealing with worse.

A super El Niño happens when a huge stretch of the Pacific Ocean gets much warmer than usual, we’re talking more than 2°C above average, which supercharges the connection between the ocean and atmosphere I mentioned above. The result is that weather patterns around the world get weird, and forecasters are already watching for signs this could be a strong one, according to recent analysis from the Washington Post.

One of the biggest impacts is heat, more of it. El Niño years tend to be warmer globally anyway, but a super El Niño can help push temperatures into record-breaking territory. So when climate skeptics say “it’s just a natural cycle,” they’re technically right, in the same way pouring gasoline on a fire is “just adding fuel.” The baseline is already hotter thanks to human-driven climate change, and El Niño piles on top of that, a relationship you can see in long-term global temperature data. Expect stronger, longer heat waves in places like North America, Europe, and parts of Africa.

Rainfall patterns also shift in ways that are, frankly, inconvenient for everyone. Some regions, like the southern U.S. and parts of South America, could see heavier rain and flooding, while others, including Australia, Indonesia, and Southeast Asia, may swing toward drought. That means stressed crops, strained water supplies, and a higher risk of wildfires where things dry out, as outlined in recent climate impact summaries.

Storms do not escape the chaos either. A strong El Niño tends to tamp down Atlantic hurricanes, which is good news there, but shifts that energy into the Pacific, where cyclone activity can ramp up. That redistribution of risk is something meteorologists are already highlighting in recent hurricane outlooks. In other words, it is less about if there is risk and more about where it shows up.

The bigger picture is that a super El Niño acts like a climate amplifier. It does not replace long-term warming, it adds to it, increasing the odds of extreme events happening all at once in different parts of the world. So yes, it is natural. But in today’s climate, “natural” does not mean harmless, it just means we have one more thing turning the dial in the wrong direction.

I am g0ing to close by saying that yeah, I know there’s a lot going on, but the idea that climate change disappeared from the national political conversation in 2024 was maddening. Hey political consultants, climate change doesn’t give a shit if you think it’s not a major issue, and if this super Niño does indeed form, there will be plenty of loss of life and property to remind us.

The last word goes to The Doors.