From Holden:

New poll numbers for Arizona show that Bush is losing support in the Republican stronghold of Maricopa County:

Bush: 46 (-2)

Kerry: 41 (+5)

Undecided: 13 (-2)

The Arizona Republic explains it all:

After consistently chalking up 12-point leads over Kerry in three Rocky Mountain Polls since April, the president scored only a 5-point advantage, 46-41 percent, in a mid-August telephone survey of 452 voters, Earl de Berge, research director for Phoenix-based Behavior Research Center, reported Monday. Of those polled, 13 percent were undecided. The margin of error was 4.7 percentage points.

Republicans outnumber Democrats in Maricopa County by roughly 4-3, and the county has more than 60 percent of the state’s voters.

The narrowness of the results could mean that the Nov. 2 presidential election will depend on Democratic-leaning Pima County and rural areas, de Berge said.

Bush won Arizona by 6.5% of the votes cast, but it has not been seriously considered as a battleground state. Yet.