Three Strikes, You’re Out

From Holden:

It looks like the Iraqi Constitution Express is set to leave the station without the Sunnis on board. Which is a shame because:

If the permanent constitution is approved in the referendum, elections for a permanent government would take place no later than December 15, 2005, and the permanent government would take office no later than December 31, 2005. However, if a majority of Iraqi voters do not approve the draft constitution or if two-thirds of the voters in three or more governorates reject it, then the National Assembly will be dissolved.

So if the draft consitution does not win 2/3s approval in three of the four Sunni-majority provinces it’s back to the drawing board. Ironic, ain’t it.

The three province veto clause was inserted into the political framework on the insistence of the Kurdish parties, with the backing of the US, so they could defeat any constitution that did not deliver autonomy. It now has the potential to rebound against them. At least four provinces have a clear Sunni majority.