My prediction for November.
There you have it, folks. That’s a 338-200 EV win for the Democrats. Pretty substantial. I think Florida will be won by the thinnest of margins, as well as Virginia. Ohio? I’m gonna guess that it turns surprisingly blue. Economic woes are really piling up, and there comes a point when pocketbook voting trumps all that hate-filled bullshit the Republicans spew. You can make your own electoral college maphere, by the way.
What do I base this guess on? Well, my own reaction to the polling data I spend waaaay too much time looking at, and a healthy dose of skepticism.
Here’s my most pessimistic prediction:
Still a win, but a very close one.
Yeah. Not nearly as comfortable. That’s Obama 278 EV’s, McCain 260. You could drop Nevada into the McCain column, and it would still be a Democratic win. So, if the outcome is the same, why is this way to get to it less desirable?
To answer that, you have to look at my dream electoral map. Yes, I am that much of a dork.
The Good Guys by a mile.
So what makes this one so much better? To start with, it’s an absolute landslide win. 382-156 EV’s. But that doesn’t explain all of it.
Let’s do some side-by-side comparisons.
Check out the psychological impact of that. The “dream” map makes my predicted one look like a pile of shit. It’s got continiuty–you and I know that those big Western states are largely empty space, but there’s something visceral about seeing all that blue. I know there’s no way in hell we’ll get Nebraska or Arizona this election, and Indiana is only slightly more likely. Also, I threw in Montana just for fun.
The “dream” map is better because itlooks like the crushing it is. My predicted map is still quite a whipping–338 to 200 EV’s. But all that red is contiguous, and it would serve not only to attenuate the sense of defeat among the right-wingers, but actually give them space to claim that they really represent “more of America.” If you think that’s crazy, that’s exactly what they did in 2000. I want their state blocs broken up. I thought about throwing Mississippi into the blue column, just because I still think good thoughts about my home state, but that would be stretching every limit of possibility–much more so than Arizona or Nebraska.
My most pessimistic map? It looks like what it is–a very, very close election. I want a map that looks like a definite win, even if the person looking at it knows absolutely nothing about the Electoral College. That kind of win doesn’t leave those lying fucking weasels of right-wing radio, Internet, and FOX “News” any space to breathe. No daylight, baby.
You see, I don’t just want us to win this year. I want us to humiliate those bastards.