Let Them Fight

It’s been a pretty amazing few days of Indictment Thursday being followed by (Surprise) Indictment Monday, and let’s not forget that last Tuesday Ohio voters came out to thwart a ballot initiative that would have made it more difficult to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution.

That abortion rights victory came as a surprise to the pundit class. It should not have, but just like with the polling prior to the 2022 election, registration and turnout trends for women, young people, and people of color were ignored in favor of obviously biased polling that favored a straight white male electorate.

We know from a series of victories that go back to 2022 that abortion rights are a unifying point for a lot of people, and not only just liberals. I think that TFG’s constant court appearances will also eventually come to be a negative asset to everyone but his cult followers.

The real pressure point in all of this is how abortion plays to the various factions of the Republican Party. One of the issues that has galvanized the left is the GOP’s proposal to enact a national abortion ban, and this has led to fissures in the party:

Lynda Bell, the president of Florida Right to Life, bristled at the suggestion that Republican candidates must back a federal abortion ban. “There’s nothing in the Constitution that talks about abortion and this issue should be decided by the states,” she said.

And on the other side of the extremist side:

Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, a national anti-abortion group, has clashed with the GOP contenders for the nomination as the organization enforces its own red line for presidential candidates: a 15-week federal ban.

When Trump’s campaign suggested in April that abortion should be decided at the state level, Marjorie Dannenfelser, the organization’s president, called it “a morally indefensible position for a self-proclaimed pro-life presidential candidate to hold.” It was a stunning break between one of the country’s most influential anti-abortion groups and the president who nominated the three Supreme Court justices that helped secure the movement’s watershed victory. Trump and Dannenfelser later met to clear the air, though Trump has still evaded outlining his views on the issue.

The wrinkle is that the core of the GOP electorate, evangelical voters, don’t see this as a dynamic that needs to be navigated. They just want a ban:

In the first New York Times/ Siena College poll of the likely Republican primary electorate next year, it appears the perceived softening on abortion rights has not spread as far as previously thought, with 56% of respondents believing abortion should mostly or always be illegal. It’s the clearest sign yet that candidates talking about a new national ban aren’t chasing a narrow, fervent segment of their party, but a clear majority.

Ever since Dobbs triggered new abortion bans and limits around the country and talk of even more restrictions, more than a few Republicans have said their party was effectively alienating women at the polls, especially those in the suburbs with college degrees. But looking through the detailed cross sections of the data, it’s not entirely irrational for these GOP leaders to be chasing this agenda—at least insofar as they’re looking to win primary voters.

I found this very surprising until I remembered that the GOP universe is an extremist universe:

Within the Republican universe, there are no statistical differences among urban, suburban, and rural voters on abortion. Men and women answer almost identically. While Republicans with a college education are more likely to support abortion rights than those without one, the difference is not significant enough to give those favoring abortion access a plurality let alone a majority. In fact, nowhere in those critical slivers of the electorate registers a winning majority in support of those rights. In other words, at least at this point, the Republican primary universe is not primed to reward those same women who in 2022 told reporters that abortion had soured them on the GOP. Right now, the party’s membership is ready to weigh in on a nominee—and they want someone who promises to fight against restoring abortion rights.

I’m perfectly OK with letting the GOP extremists destroy the party over abortion rights. It’ll be interesting to see what real estate the GOP primary hopefuls stake out at the first GOP primary debate in a few weeks.

Queen has some advice for the GOP:


2 thoughts on “Let Them Fight

    1. Definitely rooting for injuries here.
      Also, not for nothing, but the hypocrisy of ‘conservative’ women who’ve elected to have abortions and have the temerity to demand nationwide bans is stomach-churning. I know it’s in keeping with the cognitive dissonance that comes with being Republican, but it’s still gobsmacking.

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