I think that while there are issues with political polling, the perspective going around the media about how bad the polls are off is something that is exaggerated.
One problem is the polls are portrayed as predictive, and not merely attempts to capture a snapshot in time of a race’s status. It can also tell us a lot about the voting public.
Polls can pick up potential trends and they seemed to do so in South Carolina. The final Trump advantage was +20.3, and the RealClearPolitics final average of polls was Trump +23.3. However, three of the final four polls were off by less than tw0 points.
Two of these saw Trump’s advantage shrink in the last week. The Trafalgar Group poll was Trump +29 for Feb. 13-15, and then closed to Trump +21 for Feb. 21-23, which was the final poll for the primary. Emerson was Trump +29 for Jan 2-3, but then narrowed to Trump +22 for Feb. 15-17.
I think its interesting that Trump’s lead shrunk in the final few weeks. So did Jim Newell over at Slate.
Trump’s weaknesses in the exit polls will ring familiar. Haley won independents, those who aren’t evangelical Christians, college graduates, first-time voters, moderates, non-gun owners, and those who oppose a national abortion ban. Among the third of the primary electorate who do not think Trump would be fit for the presidency if convicted of a crime, Haley won 87 percent. This is too much of a moderate, white-collar coalition for Haley to win a Republican primary in the era of Trump. But come November, it’s a bloc that will decide the 2024 election.
Let’s also imagine how the DC media would react if Biden had an opponent pulling 40%.
And speaking of exit polls, there were a few doozies about the GOP rank-and-file. In a word, they are nuts. Let’s kick off a quick look at the fine MAGA folks of South Carolina with this little chestnut:
Not to be mean, but six in 10 people thinking the 2020 election was fixed is plain ol’ crazytown. But GOP folks are law and order types, right? They believe in laws and being tough on crime, correct?
Nope, apparently not.
Here is perhaps my “favorite” slice of exit polling. Nearly 70% of Republican voters in South Carolina think that Trump is physically and mentally fit to be president.
If that seems crazy, those same voters think Trump is more physically and mentally capable than Nikki Haley. Okay, not a Haley fan, but this is insane.
This guy is who 69% of South Carolina Republicans think is a Very Stable Genius.
i have no idea what Trump is talking about at this point. if a guy sitting next to me at the bar sounded like this i would peace out. pic.twitter.com/3jd5MoGMS2
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) February 23, 2024
Finally, I wanted to take a quick look at polling heading into the New York District 3 Congressional Special Election. That particular race ended up a +7.8 win for Tom Suozzi and the Democrats. The media narrative was that this was surprising, that it was a toss up “based on polls.”
However, the last two polls (Siena and Emerson) had Suozzi up by four, which is not a huge lead but is one none the less. The polls were off by 3.8, and underestimated Democratic support.
So what does all of this mean? Polls are definitely having issues because of things like people not answering their phones. But coverage of polls is worse, and often causes unnecessary anxiety. Besides, we have loooonnnggg way to go to November. Probably best to ignore the polls, and the coverage of them, for now.
The last word goes to Little Steven.