It’s Middle East cease fire day at First Draft as I follow-up on Parenthetical’s fine post. Let’s get on with it.
Long time readers know that I’m a glass half full person. I choose to be optimistic because the worst has already happened: The death of my first wife from cancer at age 30. Despite the current mess we’re in I’m even optimistic about the future of our country. Americans aren’t cut out for dictatorship: Not even MAGA maggots.
There’s something, however, I am pessimistic about: events in the Middle East, especially when many are spiking the ball. The Kaiser of Chaos is in full tilt Commander McBragg mode, telling everyone he *should* have won the Nobel Peace Prize.
I’m skeptical that the current cease fire will become a full-blown peace plan. Why? Everyone involved in the process is a bad faith actor. Trump didn’t get personally involved because of the suffering of the Palestinian people and Israeli hostages. Instead, it’s because he identifies with the corrupt rulers of the Gulf states, Emiratis and all.
As usual, Josh Marshall nails it:
“I don’t think Trump expended any great amount of energy over this and I don’t think he really cares greatly about any of the people on either side of the conflict. Let’s remember that a few months ago he backed a plan to “voluntarily” depopulate Gaza and remake it as a series of Mediterranean resorts, sort of Monaco only 150 times the size.
The key here is Trump’s extremely close relationships with the Gulf princes and his relationship with Israel and the Israeli right, especially Benjamin Netanyahu. The first (the relationship with the princes) is based on a mutual love of authoritarianism and corruption. More generously we might say it’s a shared vision of the future of the global economy and billionairedom — stated succinctly, the billionaires run the world. But for Trump, specifically, it’s about corruption. He and his family have now become genuine high rollers because of those relationships, which are all based on his political power in the United States. He monetized MAGA and made himself the billionaire he always dreamed of being.”
Like the Insult Comedian, neither Hamas nor the Netanyahu government operate in good faith. The former took hostages after murdering festival goers, and the latter committed war crimes in Gaza. They’re both bad faith actors who cannot be trusted to keep their word.
A reminder that this is the third cease fire since October 7, 2023. The Biden administration negotiated the release of over 100 hostages during the second cessation of hostilities. Team Biden operated in good faith; Team Trump never does.
I don’t mean to sound 100% churlish. I’m glad the carnage has ended for now and that the hostages have been freed. Having lived through the Iran Hostage Crisis and its adverse impact on our politics, hostage taking is anathema to me. Hamas has dirty hands but so do the other bad faith actors involved.
It’s no secret that I have strong ties to the American Jewish community. I grew up in a town where everyone named Green was originally a Greenberg or Greenstein. One of my mom’s closest friends was a Holocaust survivor. The founders of the state of Israel were good people who would be appalled by what Bibi has wrought. Ben-Gurion, Meir, Rabin, and Peres weep.
The Netanyahu government has besmirched the reputation of Israel. A state founded in response to war crimes has committed them. My position on this mess is summed up by this line in the BlueSky profile of someone I follow: “Just as I support America but not Trump, I support Israel but not Netanyahu.”
That may be unfashionable; so is my support for a two-state solution. Just as there should be Palestinian state, Israel is here to stay regardless of the irredentist dreams of its adversaries. History has taught us that you don’t solve one refugee problem by creating another one.
A reminder that the last American president to brag about transforming the Middle East was George W. Bush. Instead of peace, we ended up with what Gore Vidal called “perpetual war for perpetual peace.”
Progress in the Middle East is always followed by a relapse into chaos and violence. Does anyone really think that a president who has brought chaos and violence to his own country will be the one to bring lasting peace to the Middle East? I, for one, do not. The Middle East is where optimism goes to die.
Let’s end this pessimistic post on an optimistic note. The last word goes to Nick Lowe: