Harriet Miers should slip this analysis of the situation in Iraq by top Army analysts under Chimpy’s nose before today’s “major” speech.
Andrew Terrill [professor at the Army War College’s strategic studies institute] and Conrad Crane [professor of history at the United States Military Academy] advise against setting a schedule to withdraw of U-S troops. But a new study from the Army War College experts says an American presence in Iraq probably can’t go on more than three more years.
Terrill and Crane also think it’s increasingly unlikely that coalition forces will “crush” the insurgency before withdrawing.
They also believe it’s “no longer clear” the U-S will be able to train an Iraqi military that can secure the country.
Terrill and Crane say the U-S may have to “scale back” expectations for a future Iraq and accept a relatively stable but undemocratic state.
Before the U-S invasion in 2003, Terrill and Crane accurately predicted much of the turmoil U-S troops have encountered since toppling Saddam Hussein.