Your Friday Morning Republican Juggernaut Update, Part I

From Holden:

Rep. Katherine Harris’ poll numbers continue to plummet, yet she keeps saying she can beat Bill Nelson with 53% of the vote. Then again, Harris is not known for her firm grip on reality.

As poll after poll shows U.S. Rep. Katherine Harris trailing Bill Nelson in the race for Senate, Harris has clung to a figure that she says suggests she can win.

If her base supporters get to the polls, Harris says at virtually every campaign stop, she will beat Nelson and carry 53 percent of the vote.

“When people know that,” she said during a May television appearance, “and that all of this other polling is just so early, we know we can win.”

Thursday, as a new Quinnipiac University poll showed Harris down by 37 points, a spokeswoman for the Longboat Key Republican repeated the theory.

“The internal polls show if she gets the base out, she wins with 53 percent,” said Jennifer Marks.

But it’s unclear from where Harris is getting her data.


Chris Ingram, who now works for one of Harris’ GOP rivals, also said the figure refers not specifically to Harris but to “a generic GOP candidate.”

But a former campaign manager said the 53 percent figure comes from a poll conducted for Harris. It may be more than a year old, said Jim Dornan, and relies on a “bunch of best-case-scenario assumptions.” None of those, he said, have panned out. “It’s a fallacy,” he said.

Meanwhile, Harris hires fourth campaign manager.