I may not be much of a lawyer nowadays but I’ve been amused by all the folks who are *absolutely* certain that the Supremes will throw out the Health Care law. It’s all based on tough questions asked at the oral argument. One thing I learned from my Con Law profs is that appellate cases are won with written briefs and that oral arguments are for show. Yeah, the raving monster loony justices were mean to the solicitor general but that doesn’t mean the law will be struck down.
What we’ll learn from tomorrow’s decision is whether or not Chief Justice Roberts minds being seen as a partisan hack. He strikes me as very image conscious, which could lead to commerce clause precedents being upheld instead of slashed and burned per the wishes of the delusional and downright demented Scalito/Thomas faction of the court. The commerce clause gives Congress the power to regulate interstate commerce and health care amounts to something like 1/6th of our national economy. If that ain’t commerce, I don’t know what is.
So, I’m going to stick my neck out and predict that the law will be upheld by a 6-3 vote with Kennedy and Roberts joining the sane faction of the court. The only part of the law that *might* be thrown out is the so-called individual mandate. I say so-called because mandates usually have an enforcement mechanism and this does not. It’s a man without a date or a date without a man or some such shit…
I could be wrong, I have been many times before and y’all are welcome to mock me if I am. But if Roberts and Kennedy are *really* conservatives they’ll defer to the legislative branch on this issue instead of having this opinion compared to the partisan hackery of Bush v. Gore.