It’s About People, Not Polling

You may have seen the Siena/New York Times poll that was released on Monday, or, because it was so bad for the Democrats, you may have read about it as the media gleefully amplified it. See, it showed that the Democrats were in big trouble and as God as my witness they’ll never write a non-horse race story ever again.

Experts and wags quickly noted a bunch of weird things with the poll’s internals, like the sample was only 792 people. And the sample skewed old and white. The age groups weren’t split along the normal generational lines and they also were weighted in an unusual way. Half of the polling was done via land line, too. Nor did it reflect the gender gap we’ve seen in multiple 2022 post-Dobbs elections.

None of that mattered to the press—bad news for the Democrats after a series of Democratic policy victories was air for their tired DEMS IN DISARRAY narrative, after all. But facts matter, and the problems with the poll itself aside, there are still signs that the Democrats have a chance to hold on.

First, there have been more polls released this week:

And this:

But those signs I mentioned aren’t captured in any of the current likely voter polling. Here’s what’s missing.

One factor is turnout—Georgia has been setting early voting records this week:

And as of Tuesday afternoon:

And polling is missing the striking new factor in post-Dobbs elections:  the increasing gender gap.

And it seems that the registration gains among young people since Dobbs are being ignored by the media and pollsters:

And that the likely voter group needs to be less white:

Again, I’m not predicting anything. But there’s more to consider than just polling and the media hyping up results that are bad for the Democrats. And in the meantime, we keep up whatever get out the vote activities we’ve been doing.

Barbra can sing us out this time:


2 thoughts on “It’s About People, Not Polling

  1. I hate to agree with Bill Kristol but he’s describing the worst case scenarists, bed wetter, Nervous Nellie syndrome that I bang on about. It’s the root of poor Democratic messaging. It’s not just the elites.

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