Rando Campaign 2022 Notes

Political pundits are like generals. They tend to assume that the next war is like the last one. That’s why they failed so miserably in 2022.

Elections aftermaths are best dealt with in a scattershot manner. It’s how the returns roll in. I’m feeling a bit ground down by the election season. It was hard dealing with the bed wetting Nervous Nellies inside the tent and the bluster and bullshit outside the tent.

I wrote this post on the fly and tweeted this out as I drank coffee and noshed:

I tried to update but some of the details may fall by the wayside as the news cycle churns. Heed the words of this song and do not forsake me, oh my darling:

Back to rando notes on politics.

Kudos to Cassandra for nailing the importance of abortion rights to this election cycle.

I last updated the post at 10:30 central on 11/9, so please mentally insert “as of this writing” where appropriate.

Remember when Maggie Hassan, Michael Bennet, Patty Murray, and Kathy Hochul were in trouble? Each was easily reelected last night. The poll aggregators whiffed on the first three and the NYT on the candidate in its own backyard. The Gray Lady should be blushing right about now. I’ll try and ease their pain with a musical interlude:

The low point of the evening was the defeat of the candidate I’d most like to have a beer with, Tim Ryan. He waged a valiant campaign but couldn’t swim against the Republican tide in the Buckeye State. I said tide, not wave.

Tim deserves credit for Dems overperforming in several Ohio House races. Give your fellow Irishman a job, Joe. I know you don’t drink but Tim and I do:

The high point of the night was in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. The governor’s race was one of the weirdest and scariest in the country. It pitted a Jew against an antisemite. Josh Shapiro won and should now be taken seriously as a presidential candidate down the road. He’s a fine messenger with an outstanding message. Abortion rights, yes. Extremism, no. It works for me.

John Fetterman had the last laugh over the quack snake oil salesman carpetbagger Mehmet Oz who followed the Trumpbrick road to defeat.

Speaking of quacks:

The votes are still being counted in Arizona, but the state seems to have regained a measure of sanity. Captain Senator Mark Kelly defeated fascist Thiel tool Blake Masters. Katie Hobbs leads in the goober race against Scary Kari Lake, but it hasn’t been called. Let’s all cross our fingers. 🤞🤞🤞

This is for you, Katie:

Speaking of famous Arizonans, I posted this on Twitter, which was normal by its own standards last night:

D Duce Wannabe had a big night winning in a landslide over my countryman Charlie Crist. I know you enjoyed being Governor but it’s time to give up on that dream. Two losses and you’re out.

Little Marco also won easily over his impressive challenger Val Demings. Give her a job for fighting the good fight, Joe.

That all goes to show that Florida as well as Ohio should no longer be treated as a swing state whereas Wisconsin remains in play. The new swing states are Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.

A quick note on the Tar Heel state. It’s a pity that Cherie Beasley didn’t get more national support. She did better than expected and her state should be treated as a purple one in the future. Just don’t mention John Edwards.

That brings us to:

Reverend Senator Warnock’s decision to pursue ticket splitters was a wise one as he consistently ran 4 to 5 points ahead of Stacey Abrams over the course of election night. This looks like it’s headed to a runoff. The question is whether the Dems will have 49 or 50 seats when the dust settles.

In Nevada, the estimable Jon Ralston believes Senator Cortez Masto may pull out a victory as most of the votes still out are in Clark County. Vegas, baby.

If the Dems have 50 seats when Georgia holds its runoff, will the people who don’t like the dumb, horny, and hypocritical jock turn out if Senate control isn’t on the line? Forgive me if my math is wrong. Stay tuned.

Democrats still have a chance to take the House. The path is narrow, but it leads through California. That means it won’t be decided this week. They count slowly in my original home state. That will ratchet up the pressure on KMac. I expect Steve Scalise will knife him and foment a coup whatever happens. The Jim Jordans of the world are impatient. They want instant gratification.

Let’s circle back to the pundits. They were wrong. The so-called red wave never materialized. Pundits tend to misuse history, they did it again. History is a guide, not a roadmap. It rarely repeats itself exactly.

Last night the man we call Uncle Lawrence in our house pointed out that the 1994 wave was unexpected and unpredicted. He is, as usual, correct. I recall being miserable as I channel surfed between ABC, CNN, and CBS. To paraphrase Dan Rather, it was NOT as tight as a tick.

A quick MSNBC note. My ex-cable news wife Rachel Maddow was more tolerable than expected last night. The Queen of the Bed Wetters gloomy and doomy approach was tamped down by others on the panel, especially Uncle Lawrence and Cousins Chris and Alex. Kornacki, as always, was outstanding. Buy that boy a new pair of khakis.

This song is dedicated to my cable news uncle:

I would, however, never “leave his dead ass there by the side of the road.”

The 2022 red wave was a damp squib that fizzled much to the dismay of the pundits. They’re more interested in being right than using their little gray cells to think. Hercule Poirot weeps.

The biggest loser of the night was this guy:

It’s the third consecutive election in which he damaged Republican prospects. He’ll brag about JD Vance but many of the Trumpiest candidates lost. D Duce Wannabe has emerged as a viable alternative. He talks like a Trump, poses like a Trump, and walks like a Trump.

The last word goes to the Jersey Boys aka the Four Seasons: