I rarely write about polls. They’re ephemeral and sometimes misleading. I recently asked my writers to write less about polls. I stand exposed as a hypocrite because I couldn’t resist writing about some polls out of Arizona that put a pep in my step.

Arizona has been a ruby red state since the rise of Barry Goldwater in 1952. Democratic presidential candidates have only carried the state twice since then. The 2020 election saw Arizona trending purple as Joe Biden, Mark Kelly, and Katie Hobbs won their races. That trend is confirmed in the polls I just alluded to:

“Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) is leading both former Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake (R) and Sen. Krysten Sinema (I-Ariz.) in a hypothetical three-way race for Sinema’s Arizona Senate seat, according to a new poll. 

A poll from the Democratic-leaning firm Public Policy Polling, which was commissioned by Gallego’s campaign and first shared with The Hill, shows Gallego receiving 41 percent support, Lake receiving 36 percent and Sinema receiving 15 percent in a hypothetical three-way matchup. A separate 8 percent of respondents said they were not sure.

Gallego also polls ahead in several other hypothetical three-way matchups. Between Gallego, Sinema and Republican Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, the Arizona Democrat received 40 percent, Lamb received 31 percent, Sinema received 16 percent and 13 percent said they were not sure.”

Between Gallego, Sinema and former Arizona Senate candidate Blake Masters (R), Gallego received 41 percent, Masters sat at 31 percent and Sinema received 17 percent; 11 percent were not sure.”

The news is deservedly bleak for the Sinematic Senator:

“But the polling suggests that Sinema’s pathway will be no easy feat. The Public Policy Polling poll found that while 23 percent said the Arizona independent should run for reelection, while 58 percent said she should not.

Sinema’s favorable rating sat at 26 percent, compared to an unfavorable rating of 52 percent. Gallego’s favorable rating is at 38 percent, with an unfavorable rating of 27 percent, while 35 percent said they aren’t sure — suggesting the Arizona Democrat may largely be unknown to some voters in the state.” 

Gallego has room to grow while Sinema and Scary Kari have locked in their support. For an incumbent Senator to run third in any poll is remarkable. Only 23% of Arizonans want her to run for reelection. The Sinematic Senator  is neck deep in shit and sinking fast.

This is what happens when you change political horses in midstream. The Sinematic Senator was elected as a fiscal moderate and a social issues progressive. That’s a similar profile to her Democratic colleague, Senator Mark Kelly. Kelly, however, danced with those who brung him when he ran for a full term in 2022.

Sinema has poisoned the well with both major parties: She’s too beholden to fat cat donors for Democratic tastes and too progressive on social issues for Republicans. My esteemed colleague from Gotham City has this to say about that:

The MSM loves candidates who knee-cap their own supporters. The voters do not.

The last word goes to Exene Cervenka followed by her X bandmate John Doe: