I looked at the ways the GOP was kneecapping itself with its own voters, and now that early voting has begun, we can see the shape of the upcoming GOP harvest.

First, the GOP decided to fuck up the Post Office, since some blue states have embraced vote by mail. Guess how that turned out:

Over the past three years, as mail volume continued to plummet and annual deficits ballooned, the Postal Service started consolidating the processing of first-class mail at larger regional plants instead of at smaller hubs closer to local post offices. Then, in a little-noted switch that mostly took effect after the 2024 election, the agency cut the frequency of mail pickups in half at many post offices 50 miles or more from these processing plants, from twice daily to once.

The changes often added a day or more to delivery time and, most importantly for ballots, pushed back postmarking, which doesn’t happen until mail reaches the regional centers. 

In this year’s primary, the effects of the cuts were clearest in five states that make detailed data on mail-in ballots available: Washington, California, Ohio, North Carolina and Oregon. All have or recently had grace periods allowing ballots to count if they come in after Election Day as long as they’re postmarked by the deadline.

In these states, the number of ballots rejected for arriving late soared in counties affected by the service changes compared to 2022, ProPublica’s analysis showed. 

Rejection rates in counties where services were cut doubled or tripled from what they were four years ago, dwarfing any increases in counties where postal pickups remained as they were, our analysis showed. In urban Spokane, for example, the number of ballots rejected for being late actually dropped this year.

Across the five states, the delays have had the most substantial effect in areas that voted for Trump in 2024, ProPublica’s analysis shows. In Washington, Secretary of State Steve Hobbs, a Democrat, said he sees the service changes directed by Republican appointees leading the Postal Service as a way to undermine mail-in voting. 

“I don’t think they realized how much it was going to affect their voter base,” he said, adding that Washington has “a lot of rural Republican voters.”

You don’t say. Oh, and if ProPublica is too liberal for you, Brookings found the same outcomes.

The other problem that the GOP faces is that its own voters aren’t motivated to ask for 2 more years of the last 2 years.

And we know why, too:

Today, just under half of rural voters say they’ll support the GOP again in November.

Like other groups, rural Americans are concerned about paying the bills. Nineteen percent said the rising cost of living is their biggest economic problem in a recent survey, with gas and energy costs not far behind.

The Trump administration has, in part, tried to counter those anxieties by talking about job growth and the AI boom, but rural voters are frustrated about those issues too.

Less than a quarter of rural voters say the economy is in good shape, and unemployment is a focal point: 8% called a lack of jobs and unemployment their biggest economic issue, and only 28% thought there were good or excellent job opportunities in their communities.

Data centers are part of the story too. Only 2% called it their biggest economic problem, but that number is larger than it seems. For 1 in 50 rural voters, data centers are a bigger problem than housing, the cost of living, or getting a job.

We’re going to early vote tomorrow. I don’t anticipate any problems but I’ll be curious to see what the turnout is like in my red rural county.

I’ll leave you with this: