Election Simulator

From Holden:

This post won’t clarify a thing, but I think it’s interesting.

Andrea Moro of the University of Minnesota has worked up the probabilities that either Bush or Kerry will win next week based on the poll results found at two popular sites, 2.004k.com and RealClearPolitics.com. Each of these sites have their biases (2.004k.com is pro-Kerry, RealClearPolitics.com sucks it for Bush), and those biases shine through in Moro’s simulations.

Based on 2.004k.com’s data she he calculates a 70.4% probability that Kerry will win and a 28.1% probability Bush will win and we will all die in pain.

Using RealClearPolitics.com data she he figures a 21.1% probability Kerry will win and a 77.6% probability that the sentient creatures of America will flee to Canada on November 4.

It’s a typical garbage-in-garbage-out situation, but interesting nonetheless.