Jumping on the Democratic Bandwagon

From Holden:

Chimpy is stuck at 36% job approval in the latest AP/Ipsos poll, but the important news is the nation is tilting towards the Democratic Party in a BIG way.

Republicans are in jeopardy of losing their grip on Congress in November. With less than four months to the midterm elections, the latest Associated Press-Ipsos poll found that Americans by an almost 3-to-1 margin hold the GOP-controlled Congress in low regard and profess a desire to see Democrats wrest control after a dozen years of Republican rule.


The AP-Ipsos survey asked 789 registered voters if the election for the House were held today, would they vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate in their district. Democrats were favored 51% to 40%.

Not surprisingly, 81% of self-described liberals said they would vote for the Democrat. Among moderates, though, 56% backed a Democrat in their district and almost a quarter of conservatives — 24% — said they will vote Democratic.

Democrats also held the advantage among persuadable voters — those who are undecided or wouldn’t say whom they prefer. A total of 51% said they were leaning Democrat, while 41% were leaning Republican.

The Fox News Poll released yesterday (in which Chimpy’s approval rating fell 5 points to 36%) revealed a similar trend towards the Dems.

Americans think the most important issues facing the country today are Iraq (21 percent), the economy (11 percent) and health care (10 percent). On each of these, Democrats are seen as the party that can do a better job — by a razor-thin margin on Iraq (+2 percentage points), and by much more significant margins on the economy (+20 points) and health care (+29 points).

Even though it is extremely close, this is the first time the GOP is no longer the preferred party on Iraq: By 38 percent to 36 percent voters say they think the Democrats would do a better job handling the war.

On terrorism, Republicans, who once had as much as a 34-point advantage in 2003, now top Democrats by 12 percentage points. The related issue of border security is the only other item where Republicans are favored.

With Democrats preferred on most issues, as one might expect, they win the generic ballot test. By 42 percent to 34 percent, voters say they would support the Democratic candidate if the midterm election were held today. Their current 8-percentage point advantage is down from a 13-point edge last month (June 13-14).

Self-identified independent voters say they would back the Democratic candidate by 30 percent to 17 percent. Most Democrats say they would vote for their party’s candidate (82 percent), as do most Republicans (78 percent).

Among those saying they voted for Bush in the last election, 64 percent say they would vote for the Republican candidate and 12 percent the Democrat.