Cassandra’s Crystal Ball

This is my last blog post before the election so I’ll share my thoughts about possible outcomes for next week.

One of them, my favorite, is that all of the huge increase in early Democratic voting is partnered with a huge Election Day Democratic turnout and we know on Tuesday evening that the much-anticipated red wave never happened. Another outcome—and my least favorite–is that the Republicans take the House and Senate and actively try to crash the economy and to hurt as many people as possible with a healthy margin in the House.

But with a week and the actual Election Day still to go, I think the outcome is going to be somewhere in the middle. I do think the Democrats will at least hold the Senate. I really hope they do, and especially because Mitch McConnell said he will not do another stint as Senate Minority Leader.

The House is where the crystal ball won’t clear. I’ve been writing about the various factors—the registration trends showing that the Dobbs decision galvanized women, young people, and people of color to register, the big uptick in early Democratic voters, and the enthusiasm of young voters. So far the post-Dobbs elections have returned very positive news for the Democrats, but special elections and primaries are different than midterm elections.

This means that it is possible that women and young people are angry enough about Dobbs decision that they turn out in numbers that reflect the new voter registration trends we saw over the summer, which might keep the House in the Democrats’ hands. It also means it’s possible that there are enough Democratic voters to only lose a few seats and deny new Republican Speaker of the House Marjorie Taylor Greene a majority she can actually use.

Vote! See you next week.